Sunday, June 12, 2011

Economic Cookie Crumbs

I have often joked  that the price people pay for a box of Nilla Wafers is directly related to the current status of our economy. The price is an economic indicator. And although I was just kidding when I thought of it, it's kinda turning out to be more accurate than a lot of other opinions. The 'Nilla Indicator Theory' as I have come to call it does seem to come out on top most often when compared to other supposedly accurate formulas.
   The price of Nilla wafers has been high ever since the last time gas prices went up like a rocket, remember that? Overnight the prices would jump so much that you thought maybe that stop to get fueled up in the morning was just a bad dream soon to be smashed by an equally bad alarm sound. I wondered at that time why no one seemed to see the timing between a downward turn in the economic reports after the rise in gas prices had time to trickle down.
  The price of gas went down enough to appease most people and allow them to get back to worrying about where they were gonna live after foreclosure instead of worrying about how they were gonna manage to drive themselves off a cliff because it was impossible to survive this economic climate.

 At the store I began to see prices like what is shown to the left. The unemployment  rate was dropping in most places, we had killed bin laden, and the Chinese didn't seem interested in repossessing every property they owned here. All we needed to do was get rid of those republican morons and it would be close to utopia.
 Then the gas prices went up again, and again no one said anything. Sure they had some meeting with the oil executives in D.C. but nothing came of that. Big fucking surprise that was. Meanwhile the oil companies were seeing record profits and quietly giggling while trying to say 'supply and demand' out loud without laughing so hard they soiled their own pants.
 Sure enough Nilla wafers have seen a price spike. About 3 weeks after this hike, the news started talking about another stumble in adding jobs and another recession was on it's way.
 This caused me to get excited because my Nilla Indicator Theory was still valid, it also caused me to become a bit depressed. I don't want to live the rest of my life listening to republicans and democrats talk about how I should feel guilty for leaving my grandchildren some bills to pay. If I start to pay those bills down now, it isn't gonna kill them to pay a little too, look at what they are gonna get when  it's all paid off.
  If your parents have a million dollar home (only really worth about $300,000 now) and they have been paying on it for 20 years. Let's say they burst into flames on a nice summer day while standing in the sun too long at the race track. You are left the house on which they still owed $7,809.94. You pay the remainder of the balance and the home is yours. Seems like a good deal to me. 
   In case you didn't know it, there is another thing that has a huge effect on our Our perception of how good/bad the country's economy is doing is what causes the stock market to trend up or down. I in no way can claim to understand all the ins/outs of our system and I know there are other events that do have an obvious effect, but most other factors are a result of unforeseen or unforeseeable events. An earthquake, a housing bubble which was in plain view yet no one saw it, or the incredible greed of the oil companies (should have seen that comin too)
   Kinda reminds me of a puppy chasing it's tail. The puppy can have a good time running around and around as long as it doesn't take the game too serious, after all how serious should you take running in circles? But, if the puppy concentrates and gets mad, determined to catch that fucking tail at any cost then it probably will. The pup will take a snap at it's tail, hard as it can and BAM! The dog will start howling rolling around on the floor in pain. That's us. If we take ourselves too seriously when it comes to polls and news reporters askin random people what they say about how the economy's health looks, we are gonna end up rolling around on the floor. Most of those people are like me....They may have a cool theory with an even cooler name but, at the end of the day, they don't know any more than what they read on a box of cookies in the cupboard.

Up Next......Nabisco Oreos- friend or foe?


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